Added detailed Sim object.
Added random trading. Added halving logic for dividends. Added modified illustrations of apy vs ubi charts.
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scuti
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9491d44759
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985165d834
226
econ-demo.py
226
econ-demo.py
@ -1,6 +1,9 @@
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import pandas as pd
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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import numpy as np
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import random
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import sys
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import tabulate
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# it = 0
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@ -226,6 +229,90 @@ def draw_apy_inflation(terms=50, linear_label="? (linear)"):
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plt.close()
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# plt.show()
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def draw_apy_inflation2(terms=50, linear_label="? (linear)"):
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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df = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances, ubi(balances, terms=terms)
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)
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total_supply_ubi = calc_total_supply(df)
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df_si = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances,
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compounding_interest(balances, terms=terms)
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)
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total_supply_si = calc_total_supply(df_si)
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# + 1 because the initial frame is included this time
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x = [i for i in range(1913,1913+terms+1)]
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try:
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assert(len(x) == len(total_supply_si))
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except AssertionError:
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print("Assert Error:")
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print(len(x), len(total_supply_si))
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print(df_si)
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exit()
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plt.style.use('dark_background')
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plt.plot(
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x, total_supply_ubi, color="cyan", label="dividend = 10"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x, total_supply_si, color="red", label="apy = 0.05"
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)
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plt.axvline(x=1960, color='yellow', linestyle='--')
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plt.title("Supply of Money Over Time")
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plt.legend()
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plt.xlabel("Year")
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plt.ylabel("Total Currency")
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plt.savefig("inflation-ubi-vs-5apy2.png")
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plt.close()
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# plt.show()
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def draw_apy_inflation3(terms=50, linear_label="? (linear)"):
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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df = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances, ubi(balances, terms=terms)
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)
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total_supply_ubi = calc_total_supply(df)
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df_si = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances,
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compounding_interest(balances, terms=terms)
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)
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total_supply_si = calc_total_supply(df_si)
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# + 1 because the initial frame is included this time
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x = [i for i in range(1913,1913+terms+1)]
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try:
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assert(len(x) == len(total_supply_si))
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except AssertionError:
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print("Assert Error:")
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print(len(x), len(total_supply_si))
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print(df_si)
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exit()
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dy1 = np.gradient(total_supply_ubi, x)
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dy2 = np.gradient(total_supply_si, x)
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plt.style.use('dark_background')
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plt.plot(
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x, dy1, color="cyan", label="deriv. const.div"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x, dy2, color="red", label="deriv. apy"
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)
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plt.axvline(x=1960, color='yellow', linestyle='--')
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plt.axvline(x=1940, color='orange', linestyle='--')
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plt.title("Change in Supply of Money")
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plt.legend()
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plt.xlabel("Year")
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plt.ylabel("Rate of Inflation")
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plt.savefig("inflation-ubi-vs-5apy3.png")
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plt.close()
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# plt.show()
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def draw_3ubi_3apy(terms=50):
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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@ -361,59 +448,144 @@ def draw_simple_mining_demo():
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# print(m.iloc[:,:5].to_markdown())
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visualize_wealth_dist(m, filename="wealth-distribution-pow.png")
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def trade(players, balances, spend_limit=0.10):
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assert(len(players) == len(balances))
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PRICE_FLOOR = 1
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pl_idx = len(players) - 1
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# randomly pick two players that will trade
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buyer = 0
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seller = 0
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while buyer == seller:
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# reroll until the two arent the same
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buyer = random.choice([i for i in range(0, pl_idx)])
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seller = random.choice([i for i in range(0, pl_idx)])
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price = random.uniform(
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PRICE_FLOOR, spend_limit * balances[buyer]
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)
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balances[buyer] -= price
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balances[seller] += price
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# print(balances[buyer], balances[seller])
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return
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class Sim:
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def __init__(self, players, balances, terms=50):
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self.players = players
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self.balances = balances
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def __init__(self, players, balances, terms=50, starting_amount=0):
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self.players = players.copy()
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self.balances = balances.copy()
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self.terms = terms
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self.ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY = 10
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self.NEW_PPL_START_WITH_BALANCE = starting_amount
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self.IS_TRADING = True
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self.IS_HALVING = False
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self.HALVING_EVERY = 5
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self.TITLE = str()
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self.events = []
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pass
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def add_player(self, name="Danny", balance=50):
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def add_player(self,
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balances, name="Player %i", starting_amount=0):
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name = name % (len(self.players) + 1)
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self.players.append(name)
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self.balances.apend(balance)
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assert(len(self.players) == len(self.balances))
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balances.append(starting_amount)
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try:
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assert(len(self.players) == len(balances))
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except AssertionError as e:
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print(e)
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print(len(self.players))
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print(len(balances))
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sys.exit()
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def run(self, update, trade = None):
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i = 0
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ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY = 3
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current_balances = self.balance
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def run(self, update):
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ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY = self.ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY
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INIT_AMT = self.NEW_PPL_START_WITH_BALANCE
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current_balances = self.balances
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result = list()
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while i <= self.terms:
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dividend = 10
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i = 0
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while i < self.terms:
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# add new player?
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if ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY > 0 and i % ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY == 0:
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pass
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if i > 0 \
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and ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY > 0 \
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and i % ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY == 0:
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self.add_player(
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current_balances, starting_amount=INIT_AMT)
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new_bal = []
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# make players trade if an
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if trade:
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current_balances = trade(current_balances)
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if self.IS_TRADING:
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trade(self.players, current_balances)
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for balance in current_balances:
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b = update(balance)
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if not self.IS_HALVING \
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or update == mini_apy:
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b = update(balance)
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else:
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b = mini_dividend(balance, dividend=dividend)
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new_bal.append(b)
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result.append(new_bal)
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current_balances = new_bal
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if i > 0 and i % self.HALVING_EVERY == 0:
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dividend = dividend/2
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i += 1
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return result
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def visualize(self):
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pass
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def visualize(self, data, filename=str()):
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data.insert(0, self.balances)
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data2 = [calc_share_of_wealth(row) for row in data]
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df = pd.DataFrame(data2)
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# +1 to offset 0 index
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x = [i for i in range(1,df.shape[0] + 1)]
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assert(len(x) == df.shape[0])
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plt.style.use('dark_background')
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# each column is the balance over time of an individual
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for column in df.columns:
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plt.plot(x, df[column], label=self.players[column] )
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plt.xlabel("Terms")
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plt.ylabel("Share of Wealth")
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plt.title(self.TITLE)
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# plt.legend()
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if filename != str():
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plt.savefig(filename)
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else:
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plt.show()
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plt.close()
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def mini_apy(balance, rate=0.05):
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return balance + (balance * rate)
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def mini_ubi(balance, dividend = 10):
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def mini_dividend(balance, dividend = 10):
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return balance + dividend
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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illustrate_share_of_wealth()
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visualize_ubi(terms=50)
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draw_apy_inflation(terms=75)
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draw_apy_inflation(terms=75, linear_label="dividend = 10")
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draw_3ubi_3apy(terms=75)
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draw_simple_mining_demo()
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# illustrate_share_of_wealth()
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# visualize_ubi(terms=50)
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# draw_apy_inflation(terms=75)
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# draw_apy_inflation2(terms=75, linear_label="dividend = 10")
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# draw_apy_inflation3(terms=75, linear_label="dividend = 10")
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# draw_3ubi_3apy(terms=75)
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#
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# draw_simple_mining_demo()
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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s = Sim(participants, balances)
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result = s.run(update=mini_dividend)
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s.TITLE = "Constant dividend with new players joining and trading"
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# s.visualize(result, "const-new-players-trade.png")
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t = Sim(participants, balances)
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result2 = t.run(update=mini_apy)
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t.TITLE = "APY with new people joining and trading"
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# t.visualize(result2, "apy-new-playrs-trade.png")
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u = Sim(participants, balances)
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u.IS_HALVING = True
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result3 = u.run(update=mini_dividend)
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# print(pd.DataFrame(result3))
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u.TITLE = "Halving dividend when new users mine and trade"
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u.visualize(result3, filename="halving-dividend-new-users-trade.png")
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