420 lines
11 KiB
Python
420 lines
11 KiB
Python
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import pandas as pd
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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import tabulate
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# it = 0
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def compounding_interest(balances, rate=0.05, terms=3):
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if terms <= 0:
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print("Number of terms must be >0!")
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return
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global it
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balances_over_time = []
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current_balances = balances
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for i in range(0, terms):
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new_bal = []
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for balance in current_balances:
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b = balance + (balance * rate)
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new_bal.append(b)
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# it += 1
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assert(len(new_bal) == len(balances))
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balances_over_time.append(new_bal)
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current_balances = new_bal
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return balances_over_time
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def calc_share_of_wealth(balances):
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total_money = sum(balances)
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shares = []
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for balance in balances:
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shares.append(balance/total_money)
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return shares
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def ubi(balances, rate=10, terms=3):
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dividend = rate
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balances_over_time = []
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current_balances = balances
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for i in range(0, terms):
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new_bal = []
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for balance in current_balances:
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b = balance + dividend
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new_bal.append(b)
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assert(len(new_bal) == len(balances))
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balances_over_time.append(new_bal)
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current_balances = new_bal
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return balances_over_time
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def mining(balances, halving_frequency=1, reward=10, terms=3):
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balances_over_time = []
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current_balances = balances
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for i in range(0, terms):
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new_bal = []
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for balance in current_balances:
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b = balance + reward
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new_bal.append(b)
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assert(len(new_bal) == len(balances))
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if i % halving_frequency == 0:
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reward = reward/2
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balances_over_time.append(new_bal)
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current_balances = new_bal
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return balances_over_time
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def get_balances_over_time(names, balances, data):
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if len(names) != len(balances):
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print("Every person needs a balance.")
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return
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df = pd.DataFrame({
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'name' : names,
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'initial' : balances
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})
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for i in range(0, len(data)):
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key = str(i+1)
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df[key] = data[i]
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return df
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# -------------
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def illustrate_share_of_wealth():
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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print("In this demo, we have three participants.\n", participants)
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print("They respectively have ", balances)
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print("\nThe initial distribution of wealth is ")
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print(calc_share_of_wealth(balances))
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print("\n")
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df = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances, compounding_interest(balances)
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)
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# print(it)
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df["share"] = [val * 100 for val in calc_share_of_wealth(df["3"]) ]
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print(df.to_html())
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terms = 222
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print(f"How much money exists after {terms} terms?")
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#### In 222 terms, even C becomes a millionaire.
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nb = compounding_interest(balances, terms=terms)
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print(nb[-1])
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print("\n")
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df = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances, ubi(balances)
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)
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print(df.to_html())
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print("How much money exists after 999 terms?")
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u = ubi(balances, terms=999)
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print(u[-1])
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print("What is the share of wealth in a UBI economy?")
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print(calc_share_of_wealth(u[-1]))
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def visualize_ubi(terms=25):
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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df = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances, ubi(balances, terms=terms)
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)
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# print(df.keys)
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shares = []
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for key, data in df.items():
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if key == "name":
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continue
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if key == "initial":
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continue
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shares.append(calc_share_of_wealth(data))
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sow = pd.DataFrame(shares)
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x = [i for i in range(0,terms)]
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try:
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assert(len(x) == len(shares))
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except AssertionError:
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print(len(x), len(shares))
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exit()
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plt.style.use('dark_background')
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plt.plot(
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x, sow[0], color="red", label=participants[0]
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)
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plt.plot(
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x, sow[1], color="lightgreen", label=participants[1]
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)
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plt.plot(
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x, sow[2], color="cyan", label=participants[2]
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)
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plt.axhline(
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y=0.33, color='violet', linestyle='--', label="0.33"
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)
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plt.title("Change in Wealth Distribution With a Constant Dividend")
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plt.legend()
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plt.xlabel("Terms")
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plt.ylabel("Share of Wealth")
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plt.savefig("ubi-wealth-distribution.png")
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plt.close()
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# plt.show()
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return
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def calc_total_supply(df):
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total = []
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for key, data in df.items():
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if key == "name":
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continue
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total.append(sum(data))
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return total
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def draw_apy_inflation(terms=50, linear_label="? (linear)"):
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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df = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances, ubi(balances, terms=terms)
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)
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total_supply_ubi = calc_total_supply(df)
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df_si = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances,
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compounding_interest(balances, terms=terms)
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)
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total_supply_si = calc_total_supply(df_si)
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# + 1 because the initial frame is included this time
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x = [i for i in range(0,terms+1)]
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try:
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assert(len(x) == len(total_supply_si))
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except AssertionError:
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print(len(x), len(total_supply_si))
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print(df_si)
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exit()
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plt.style.use('dark_background')
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plt.plot(
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x, total_supply_ubi, color="cyan", label="dividend = 10"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x, total_supply_si, color="red", label="apy = 0.05"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x,
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calc_total_supply(get_balances_over_time(
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participants,
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balances,
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compounding_interest(balances, terms=terms, rate=0.04)
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)),
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color="orange", label="apy = 0.04"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x,
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calc_total_supply(get_balances_over_time(
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participants,
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balances,
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compounding_interest(balances, terms=terms, rate=0.03)
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)),
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color="yellow", label="apy = 0.03"
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)
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plt.title("Supply of Money Over Time")
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plt.legend()
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plt.xlabel("Terms")
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plt.ylabel("Total Currency")
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plt.savefig("inflation-ubi-vs-5apy.png")
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plt.close()
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# plt.show()
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def draw_3ubi_3apy(terms=50):
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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df = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances, ubi(balances, terms=terms)
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)
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total_supply_ubi = calc_total_supply(df)
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df_si = get_balances_over_time (
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participants, balances,
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compounding_interest(balances, terms=terms)
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)
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total_supply_si = calc_total_supply(df_si)
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# + 1 because the initial frame is included this time
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x = [i for i in range(0,terms+1)]
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assert(len(x) == len(total_supply_si))
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plt.style.use('dark_background')
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plt.plot(
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x, total_supply_ubi, color="cyan", label="dividend = 10"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x,
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calc_total_supply(get_balances_over_time(
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participants,
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balances,
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ubi(balances, rate=5, terms=terms)
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)),
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color="violet", label="dividend = 5"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x,
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calc_total_supply(get_balances_over_time(
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participants,
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balances,
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ubi(balances, rate=15, terms=terms)
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)),
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color="lightgreen", label="dividend = 15"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x, total_supply_si, color="red", label="apy = 0.05"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x,
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calc_total_supply(get_balances_over_time(
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participants,
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balances,
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compounding_interest(balances, rate=0.04, terms=terms)
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)),
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color="orange", label="apy = 0.04"
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)
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plt.plot(
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x,
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calc_total_supply(get_balances_over_time(
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participants,
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balances,
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compounding_interest(balances, rate=0.03, terms=terms),
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)),
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color="yellow", label="apy = 0.03"
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)
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plt.title("Supply of Money Over Time")
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plt.legend()
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plt.xlabel("Terms")
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plt.ylabel("Total Currency")
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plt.savefig("inflation-ubi-vs-apy2.png")
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plt.close()
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# plt.show()
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def visualize_inflation(df, title="Inflation", filename="inflation.png"):
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supply_over_time = calc_total_supply(df)
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time_span = len(supply_over_time)
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x = [i for i in range(time_span)]
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assert(len(x) == time_span)
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plt.style.use('dark_background')
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plt.plot(
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x, supply_over_time, color="red")
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plt.title(title)
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plt.xlabel("Terms")
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plt.ylabel("Total Currency")
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plt.savefig(filename)
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plt.close()
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def visualize_wealth_dist(df, title="Wealth Distribution", filename="wealth-distribution.png"):
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participants = df["name"]
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shares = []
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for key, data in df.items():
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if key == "name":
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continue
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if key == "initial":
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continue
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shares.append(calc_share_of_wealth(data))
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sow = pd.DataFrame(shares)
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# print(sow.keys())
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terms = sow.shape[0] + 1
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x = [i for i in range(1,terms)]
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print(len(x))
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print(len(shares))
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assert(len(x) == len(shares))
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plt.style.use('dark_background')
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plt.plot(
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x, sow[0], color="red", label=participants[0]
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)
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plt.plot(
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x, sow[1], color="lightgreen", label=participants[1]
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)
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plt.plot(
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x, sow[2], color="cyan", label=participants[2]
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)
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plt.axhline(
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y=0.33, color='violet', linestyle='--', label="0.33"
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)
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plt.title(title)
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plt.legend()
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plt.xlabel("Terms")
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plt.ylabel("Share of Wealth")
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plt.savefig(filename)
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plt.close()
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def draw_simple_mining_demo():
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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m = get_balances_over_time(
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participants, balances,
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mining(balances, halving_frequency=1, terms=10)
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)
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print(m)
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print(m.shape[1])
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visualize_inflation(m, title="Inflation Given block_reward = 10 and Halving Every Term", filename="inflation-pow.png")
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# print(m.iloc[:,:5].to_markdown())
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visualize_wealth_dist(m, filename="wealth-distribution-pow.png")
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class Sim:
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def __init__(self, players, balances, terms=50):
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self.players = players
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self.balances = balances
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self.terms = terms
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self.events = []
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pass
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def add_player(self, name="Danny", balance=50):
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self.players.append(name)
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self.balances.apend(balance)
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assert(len(self.players) == len(self.balances))
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def run(self, update, trade = None):
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i = 0
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ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY = 3
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current_balances = self.balance
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result = list()
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while i <= self.terms:
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# add new player?
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if ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY > 0 and i % ADD_NEW_PPL_EVERY == 0:
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pass
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new_bal = []
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# make players trade if an
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if trade:
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current_balances = trade(current_balances)
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for balance in current_balances:
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b = update(balance)
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new_bal.append(b)
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result.append(new_bal)
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current_balances = new_bal
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return result
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def visualize(self):
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pass
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def mini_apy(balance, rate=0.05):
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return balance + (balance * rate)
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def mini_ubi(balance, dividend = 10):
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return balance + dividend
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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illustrate_share_of_wealth()
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visualize_ubi(terms=50)
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draw_apy_inflation(terms=75)
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draw_apy_inflation(terms=75, linear_label="dividend = 10")
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draw_3ubi_3apy(terms=75)
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draw_simple_mining_demo()
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participants = ["Alice", "Bob", "Charlie"]
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balances = [100,40,20]
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s = Sim(participants, balances)
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